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ktabz16 · Posted: Thu Dec 29, 2011 3:28 pm Post subject: Iran

tensions have certainly escalated in Iran, right at a time when we've pulled troops out of iraq. i think military action may be the result though i envision more bombing, naval affairs than an out and out invasion by our troops. thoughts?

econalum · Posted: Thu Dec 29, 2011 6:57 pm Post subject:

Our strengths are Air Force, and Navy Air and Ships. In my view, our ground forces are worn out, the equipment is depreciated, and the last thing we need is another big ground war. Too many tours, too much combat stress. I see it all the time in my Veterans who are now on GI Bill. And many fear of being called back.

If Iran picks a fight over the Straight of Hormuz, there will be an instant coalition against Iran - as too much of the World's oil flows through there. It would be similar, in my view, to the World's reaction to the Somali pirates, with a variety of flagged ships conducting convoy and search/identify missions. We have unassailable advantages in sea and air battles.

If US and/or Israel decide now is the time to disarm them from nukes, it will be a lonely, near solitary fight for us. And the nukes are buried so deeply, I am dubious that even bunker busters will work - the Iranians learned a lot about our capabilities in Iraqi Freedom. An invading army would consolidate the Mullahs hold and focus the citizenry on nationalism, exactly what the USA does not want.

The big play will be playing 'chicken' on energy as the Northern Hemisphere heads into the depths of winter. Russia could be a player, and not on our side. They have shown themselves to play the Oil and Gas card quickly in crises, turning down the pipelines' pressure to Ukraine and Poland, and part of Germany, 2 winters ago, just cause they could. Not enough to freeze out Eastern Europe, but to send a post-USSR message that they are not to be trifled with. If Russia aligns with Iran, remember Putin is under severe pressure right now for faking elections, its gets more complicated, fast.

Finally, remember the Iran/Iraq war? A vicious WWI trench warfare type stalemate - if Iran is spoiling for a fight, let's be Sun Tzu and pick the fight we know we can win without big costs - and it is not a land war. We need to somehow help the Iranian people rise up, a la Arab Spring, and ditch the rotting leadership in Iran. A delicate mission, to be sure. But do not minimize the importance of the new media/blogs/mobile phones/twitter, etc to going around government control.

Econ
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Jack · Hall of Fame Joined: 23 Aug 2006 Posts: 3033

If O's poll and job approval numbers continue to sag he may have to consider instigating a conflict in order to boost his numbers. should be interesting.

Swampy · Hall of Fame Joined: 02 Apr 2003 Posts: 2465

Unlike Bush and Cheney, Obama and his administration don't need to sell a war. They'll just quietly go about the business of hunting down and killing the enemy.

ktabz16 · Posted: Fri Dec 30, 2011 12:34 pm Post subject:

there is a certain level of cut-throatedness in obama's policy on terrorism. executing us citizens, terrorists or not, on foreign soil or not could be a dangerous precedent to set.

DEM · Posted: Fri Dec 30, 2011 6:46 pm Post subject:

Max11 · Junior Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Posts: 262 Location: OH

Iran is an interesting and (ultimately) sad case.

Its government faced a lot of pressure several years ago with the controversial elections, but I think that unfortunately the majority of the people there are still in support of Ahmadinejad.

The urban centers (Tehran) have a large educated middle class, with some of the most progressive views/practices in the middle east. BUT there are still more people that live outside these major centers, and are cut off from modern society, and happy to carry on with the status quo.

Having sad all that, there is no way we can enter a full-scale military conflict with Iran any-time soon. The most likely scenario would be to put together some sort of coalition similar to the war in Libya, and then share the "dirty work", or major tactical missions, with the Israelis.

Also, Pakistan remains a larger, more-dangerous, and more-complex issue for us to deal with IMO.

econalum · Posted: Fri Dec 30, 2011 9:07 pm Post subject:

I agree on Pakistan - a teetering mess, and they have nukes now.

That whole area from: Iraq, to Iran, to Afghanistan, to Pakistan is the Axis of Headaches, and Wastes of U.S. treasure.

As far as Israel being involved in Iran - stay out. They are persona non grata with all of those Arab/Persian countries, and their involvement will create more instability. And could be the only reason these varying countries above, plus Saudi Arabia, could 'unite' - get Israel.

And, one nuke could eliminate Israel as a viable country. They retaliate, which they would, where are we?

Iranians are not stupid, they know their navy would be around for about 2 hours if we are provoked. And we know that we have almost NO CHANCE of getting to their nukes or development facilities. "Persian Spring" uprising of the middle class, with a more moderate government ascending, is the only reasonable alternative.

Econ
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Jack · Hall of Fame Joined: 23 Aug 2006 Posts: 3033

ktabz16 · Posted: Fri Dec 30, 2011 9:42 pm Post subject:

hey jack-ass obama's numbers are up didn't they report that on fox news?

Jack · Hall of Fame Joined: 23 Aug 2006 Posts: 3033

DEM · Posted: Sat Dec 31, 2011 10:59 am Post subject:

SFL89 · Junior Joined: 02 Apr 2003 Posts: 496 Location: Upstate SC

I got a kick out of hearing about the rescue of the Iranian crew that had been held by Somali pirates. Such kismet that some of the ships from the same battle group that had just left the Persian Gulf were the ones that rescued them! This is the same carrier group that Iran is rattling their sabres about and trying to say that it better not return to the Gulf (or else...).

ktabz16 · Posted: Wed Jan 11, 2012 1:04 pm Post subject:

so the coast guard rescues another set of iranian seafarers, meanwhile back in the fatherland, an iranian nuclear scientist is assasinated with a bomb that was attached by a motorcyclist. they immediately blame israel (it sounds like something mossad would do) and the us and the international press suspects those two as well as possibly british sis.

crazy stuff going down with iran, what will be the end result? i don't have a good feeling about this but at the end of the day, i do trust obama to make the right decision in this case.