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photoman
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 Posted: Sun Nov 07, 2010 8:25 am Post subject: |
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| As long as we're speculating on what will happen, I'm willing to play along. Do any of you bracketologists know if there'd be any chance of Umass bypassing the first round and then HOSTING a second round game? Just curious. |
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Jackman
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| Posted: Sun Nov 07, 2010 9:50 am Post subject: |
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Beating both Delaware and URI would get us a first round bye, in my opinion. Hosting would depend on who the other unseeded teams are and how much they're willing to pay for home playoff games. Stuffing the top 5 seeds, who are guaranteed home games, with the high attendance teams that would unquestionably outbid us (App State, Delaware, Montana, etc.) gives us the best chance. If the top 5 seeds are teams that we would normally outbid (Villanova and UNH, for example) that makes it unlikely we would host a game because it would push the high attendance teams into the bidding pool.
And the thing is, a first round game on Thanksgiving holiday weekend against Lehigh or Robert Morris probably would not be well-attended, so it's not worth much. But we certainly don't want to travel either, so it'd really be helpful if we skipped that round entirely. |
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Refuse2Lose83
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| Posted: Sun Nov 07, 2010 10:39 am Post subject: |
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With the top 3 teams losing yesterday (App. St. Jax St. and Nova) W&M and Delaware should be 1 and 2 when the polls come out this week.
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Emilimo701
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| Posted: Sun Nov 07, 2010 4:05 pm Post subject: |
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| photoman wrote: | | As long as we're speculating on what will happen, I'm willing to play along. Do any of you bracketologists know if there'd be any chance of Umass bypassing the first round and then HOSTING a second round game? Just curious. |
Winning the last two, and some help. Stony Brook beating liberty and Jax State getting SE MO out of the way would be the clearest help. There are plenty of other teams ahead of UMass in my "pecking order" that UMass could leapfrog if they lose one or two. |
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OutlawPete
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| Posted: Sun Nov 07, 2010 5:32 pm Post subject: |
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So who is the opponent looking like? Lehigh or Robert Morris? Obviously we have no way of knowing but usually the projections turn out to be true. Hoping for a game at Lehigh so I can go. Home game over Thanksgiving wouldnt be cool for me 
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Emilimo701
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| Posted: Sun Nov 07, 2010 7:59 pm Post subject: |
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| OutlawPete wrote: | | So who is the opponent looking like? Lehigh or Robert Morris? Obviously we have no way of knowing but usually the projections turn out to be true. Hoping for a game at Lehigh so I can go. Home game over Thanksgiving wouldnt be cool for me |
Sorry man but in that case UMass would likely bid for the home game. Lehigh seems to have a decent fan base and are less "resticted" by money being a private school, but that could go both ways. Their season average attendance is 6,800 but they have the capacity for more than twice that so who knows?
To answer your question, we'd be pitted against Lehigh instead of Robert Morris because of geography. Even with only two weeks left there are still way too many possibilities. One scenario, for example:
UMass splits last two games and committee barely gives us the bye ("#12" team in), with on other bus-trip teams also getting bye, it's very likely they match us against the #5 seed. If that happens to be EWU, UMass heads out west to play its first game on RED turf!
We should be Stony Brook fans right now, because if they take the Big South then they might get sent to Amherst.
Other than that, it's hard to say. A scary possibility is us getting sent to the UNI-dome. |
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OutlawPete
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Refuse2Lose83
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| Posted: Mon Nov 08, 2010 12:57 pm Post subject: |
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Damnit Pete you beat me to it 
No movement here though. Still having to go on the road against Montana St. after a 1st round bye. With W&M probably waiting in the quarterfinals.
http://www.nobowls.com/
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Jackman
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| Posted: Wed Nov 10, 2010 10:53 pm Post subject: |
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| Emilimo701 wrote: | | We should be Stony Brook fans right now, because if they take the Big South then they might get sent to Amherst. |
If we don't beat both Delaware and Rhode Island, I'm a little nervous about putting Liberty in the at-large pool. I think a 7-4 UMass team has the winning argument against Liberty having beaten two teams on the road which beat Liberty, but Liberty does have a FBS win on their side. And possibly God.
The fewer surprise AQ winners, the better the odds for a 7-4 UMass team to get into the playoffs. Some others we want to avoid: S.Carolina St. winning the MEAC, SE Missouri winning the OVC, and McNeese or NW State winning the SLC. |
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OutlawPete
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| Posted: Wed Nov 10, 2010 11:40 pm Post subject: |
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Thanks for the update on the other teams outside the CAA. Hope the other leagues play out in our favor.
Funny story about Liberty. Knew a guy on the Lehigh football team and he said by far the team that talked the most trash (and it was really bad stuff) was Liberty.
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Emilimo701
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| Posted: Fri Nov 12, 2010 1:31 am Post subject: |
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| Jackman wrote: | | Emilimo701 wrote: | | We should be Stony Brook fans right now, because if they take the Big South then they might get sent to Amherst. |
If we don't beat both Delaware and Rhode Island, I'm a little nervous about putting Liberty in the at-large pool. I think a 7-4 UMass team has the winning argument against Liberty having beaten two teams on the road which beat Liberty, but Liberty does have a FBS win on their side. And possibly God.
The fewer surprise AQ winners, the better the odds for a 7-4 UMass team to get into the playoffs. Some others we want to avoid: S.Carolina St. winning the MEAC, SE Missouri winning the OVC, and McNeese or NW State winning the SLC. |
I disagree on a couple of those points..
I am confident that 7-4 UMass is in over 8-3 Liberty.
Jacksonville State (and probably SE Missouri State) are in over UMass regardless of what happens.
SC State winning the MEAC means Bethune-Cookman dropping their last two. A 9-2 SC State as an at-large is a much bigger threat than a 9-2 B-C. Either way, UMass gets the nod anyway.
IMO the only potential spoiler conference is indeed the Southland. Next week Northwestern State plays at SFA with 3-way title implications. An 8-3 SFA probably tops UMass as an at-large. But there are a few teams behind UMass in the pecking order providing wiggle room. I believe that 7-4 UMass will be in pretty much regardless of outside help (or lack thereof). Not firmly in, but in. |
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Emilimo701
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| Posted: Fri Nov 12, 2010 1:48 am Post subject: |
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| also, New Hampshire or Richmond winning out could potentially put UMass outside of the bubble. |
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Jackman
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| Posted: Sat Nov 13, 2010 5:32 pm Post subject: |
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UNH beating Villanova today hurt us, but if Delaware beats Nova next week that will finish them off and UNH basically just replaces Nova as a competitor for an at-large spot. Hopefully URI finishes off this 4th quarter against Richmond to knock them out. We've definitely got a game on our hands with URI though.
EDIT: instant jinx on URI. |
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Jackman
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| Posted: Sat Nov 13, 2010 9:05 pm Post subject: |
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We got some help today, but not as much as we could have.
What to cheer for tonight:
1. UC Davis over Cal Poly
2. Not sure what we want out of UNI-Miz State. UNI would clinch the MVC AQ with a win tonight and block a surprise AQ, but would be eliminated entirely if they lose tonight and next week against WIU. They'd also outbid us for a home game if we both make it into the unseeded playoff field.
Next week:
1. UMASS OVER URI
2. Delaware over Nova
3. W&M over Richmond
4. Towson over UNH (not gonna happen)
5. Montana State over Montana
6. SFA over NW State
7. Missouri State over NDSU
There are a few other results that might bite us, but I think those are the big ones. |
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Jackman
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| Posted: Sun Nov 14, 2010 1:50 am Post subject: |
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Cal Poly goes down, eliminating them from the 7 Division I wins list.
And with UNI's win every AQ has either been locked up or won't affect the at-large pool except for the Southland AQ.
I think there are at most 17 teams seriously vying for the 10 at large spots:
1. Either Delaware (9-1)* or W&M (7-3) - whichever doesn't get the CAA AQ.
2. Either Montana State (8-2)* or EWU (8-2) - whichever doesn't get the BSC AQ.
3. Either Jax State (9-1) or SEMO (9-2)* - whichever doesn't get the OVC AQ.
4. Wofford (8-2)*
5. Stephen F. Austin (8-2) - only if they don't get the Southland AQ.
6. Montana (7-3)*
7. Nova (6-4)
8. UNH (6-4)
9. NDSU (7-3)
10. Richmond (6-4)
11. UMass (6-4)
12. Weber State (6-4) - needs to beat Texas Tech
13. Georgia Southern (6-4)
14. WIU (6-4)
15. Chattanooga (6-4)
16. South Carolina State (8-2)*
17. Liberty (7-3)
* = has a win over a Division II team.
I think that, so long as UMass beats URI, SFA beats NW State, and Weber State doesn't beat Texas Tech, we'll make the playoffs even if no other games go our way. |
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