ou don't want to do it. Your head is screaming “Don't give in!” but your heart is nudging you, daring you, “Go ahead, do it. It is ok. What is the worst that could happen?” You try to resist, but you are too much of a UMass fanatic to deny yourself… you allow yourself to think about UMass in the NCAA Tournament this March.
In a dream season (remember, nightmares are dreams, too) that has taken UMass from the depths of a 2-9 start that included losses to Holy Cross and Richmond, to the near rapture of standing at 8-1, atop the A-10 and already having vanquished league powers Temple and Xavier on the road, fans have been taken on a particularly violent roller coaster ride. One minute, fans are wondering aloud if UMass could EVER return to perennial top 25 status and the next they are quietly scanning sports websites to see where the Minutemen are projected to be seeded.
Conventional wisdom suggests that UMass will need to win the Atlantic 10 tournament in order make an entrance into the Large Cotillion. The beauty of contributing to a fan-centered website is that we can be as unconventional as we want to be. Therefore, the following is how UMass can justify be invited to Le Soiree Grande WITHOUT winning the A-10 tournament, provided that they win 12 regular season league games and can manage to advance to the championship game of the A-10 Tournament.
The A-10.
Many feel that the A-10 is down this season, and given the absence of a team from the top 25 since early December when both Dayton and Temple dropped out of the poll in the same week, it is hard not to agree. But the conference is currently ranked 7th in the RPI. Last year the vaunted ACC was ranked 7th. The year before the Big 12 sat in the 7th spot. So although there may not be any marquee teams, the conference is pretty strong overall. The last time the A-10 was ranked as high as 7th was in 1998 and it received 5 bids to the dance. It was ranked 7th in 1997 as well and also sent 5 teams. Since 1994, the average number of teams invited from the 7th ranked conference is 4.7, with a high of 6 from the Big East in 1994 to a low of 3 from the ACC last season. The A-10 will get a minimum of three bids. One has to imagine that if the Minutemen can manage to go 5-3 down the stretch to finish at 12-4 in conference, and can win a game or two in the A-10 tournament, the committee will be hard pressed to pick two A-10 teams besides UMass to go to the tournament, unless a team that wasn't going to be invited wins the tournament.
Precedence.
Since 1994, no team with 12 conference wins in the 7th ranked conference has been excluded from the NCAAs. In that time span, the highest conference win total for a team in the 7th ranked conference to be excluded was Dayton's 11 in 1998 and the A-10 had 5 other teams invited that season. Seton Hall was 8-10 in the 7th ranked Big East (17-12 overall – 43 RPI, 29 SOS) in 1994 and was one of 6 Big East teams to receive an invitation that season.
In 1998, the Texas Longhorns started their season 3-8, only to rebound to go 13-3 in Big 12 conference play (adding another non-conference win over UMass on Super Bowl Sunday along the way) to finish 19-12 (45 RPI, 47 SOS) and receive and at-large bid. The Big 12 was ranked, you guessed it, 7th in1998.
The RPI Factor.
UMass currently sits at #62 in the RPI. If UMass keeps winning in the 2nd half of their conference schedule, say at a 6-2 or even 5-3 clip, the Minutemen figure to climb into at least the 50's. An astute poster on the UMassHoops.com message board noted that the second half of the A-10 slate is even tougher than the first for the Minutemen. UMass must still play Temple, Xavier, Dayton, GW, St. Bonaventure and URI, as they did in their first 8 conference games, but LaSalle (#154) and Duquesne (#191) are replaced with St. Joe's (#40) and Fordham (#79) in the second half of the slate. UMass' only remaining games with teams currently outside the RPI's top 100 are at George Washington ( #102) and at the Mullins Center vs. URI (#214).
UMass' strength of schedule is one thing upon which UMass must heavily rely. It currently sits at 13, which will be very helpful in the eyes of the selection committee, which historically likes to reward teams with ambitious schedules. Last season, schools in similar situations to UMass that were not invited were Wake Forest and Charlotte. Charlotte finished the season 17-15 with an RPI of 57 and an SOS of 14. But the 49ers were 7-9 in Conference USA play and finished last in their division. Wake Forest finished with a 17-14 record, 58th in the RPI with an SOS of 22. But they also finished 7-9 in conference play. UMass needs to win one.
One of the most controversial invites in recent years went to New Mexico in 1999. The Lobos were a respectable 23-8 overall, but their RPI was 74, the lowest ever to receive an at-large bid, and their strength of schedule was ranked 157th. This team managed only a 9-5 record in the WAC, which was rated 10th that season and received 3 bids.
Other teams: Who do we hate?
Hate is such an ugly word and should only be reserved for Duquesne, Melissa Rivers and people who watch “Temptation Island”. But here are a few teams that are in similar situations as UMass that Minutemen fans should hope end up on the losing end of their contests:
Nebraska: The Cornhuskers also sit at 9-11 right now, but they are ranked #63 in the RPI with a SOS of 8. The Good (from a UMass fan's perspective): They are only 3-5 in their conference, which is currently ranked 6th. The Bad: Will the NCAA justify selecting UMass over Nebraska with similar records, better RPI and SOS based solely on the number of wins UMass gets in a conference ranked lower than the Big 12? I don't think so. Better if they just lose more often.
Utah: The Utes are currently 9-9 (Against Division 1 competition), with a RPI of 69 and a SOS of 23. The Good: They are 3-3 in the 9th ranked Mountain West and have no games left with teams in the RPI top 50 and 6 games with teams ranked 99th or higher. Their SOS is going to plummet, win or lose. The Bad: Utah is a name team and sentiment may enter into the equation as Rick Majerus has left the team to take care of his mother. Networks do love their tear-jerking goo.
Memphis: We all want to see Cal, Tony and Derek succeed, but not at the expense of UMass' chances. Coach Cal's new team sits at 11-8, with an uninspiring RPI of 91 and SOS of 72. BUT, they, like UMass are having great success in conference after a tough start to the season. The Sons of Baskerville Holmes have a 6-1 record in the 8th ranked Conference USA. Much like the Minutemen, if the Tigers continue on to post a sparkling conference record, but don't win their tournament, then the same discussions will take place about Memphis as may take place about UMass. The Good: Memphis' RPI and SOS aren't impressive and they are just as likely to win the post-season tournament as anyone in the conference. The Bad: The committee might think that Coach Cal's return to the coaching ranks may make a more intriguing story than UMass' turnaround. We can hope Memphis wins their tournament and not have to even discuss the issue.
Based on some recent history, UMass fans actually do have some things to point to that can give them hope for an NCAA Tournament invite. But history and comparisons will never help UMass' cause more than continuing to play well and win games. If they do that, then all the precedents and speculation will be moot.
www.collegerpi.com was instrumental in the preparation of this analysis.