State of the Progam

[Steve81]

Someone put LSD in your pipe, Steve.

Temple game is huge. Win the FCS game as last years wins. Then beat 3 lower MAC teams and 1 good team. So bowl eligible is possible, but 5 is my minimum to qualify as a successful season. Next weeks schedule should be interesting and then Spring game and signings.

The bottom 5 are very beatable and have to see which ones we play.
Kent State, Ball State, Central Michigan, East Michigan, Akron.

NIU loses a lot on defense

So beating 5 pretty shitty teams means what exactly - you are the least shitty?

Well find out next week but think we get 3 out of those 5 teams.
What does it mean. We are not the shitty team and improving. Bowl eligibility is possible.
Not seeing the schedule, would not rule out a winning record in the MAC. A 500 record, 4-4 in the MAC is very possible.

[Quann]

Temple game is huge. Win the FCS game as last years wins. Then beat 3 lower MAC teams and 1 good team. So bowl eligible is possible, but 5 is my minimum to qualify as a successful season. Next weeks schedule should be interesting and then Spring game and signings.

The bottom 5 are very beatable and have to see which ones we play.
Kent State, Ball State, Central Michigan, East Michigan, Akron.

NIU loses a lot on defense

So beating 5 pretty shitty teams means what exactly - you are the least shitty?

Well find out next week but think we get 3 out of those 5 teams.
What does it mean. We are not the shitty team and improving. Bowl eligibility is possible.
Not seeing the schedule, would not rule out a winning record in the MAC. A 500 record, 4-4 in the MAC is very possible.

C'mon Eldon, if you were really bitching about getting 5 wins next season, you really are the Bobby Blackcloud of UMass Football fandom. I would be ecstatic. Jeez man, no pleasing you!!

[Camby4Life]

so anything less than 5 wins will be a disappointment.

Someone put LSD in your pipe, Steve.

How dare you question Steve when he talks MAC! He knows this conference better than us. 5 wins is now my new goal for next year.

[eldonabe]

So beating 5 pretty shitty teams means what exactly - you are the least shitty?

Well find out next week but think we get 3 out of those 5 teams.
What does it mean. We are not the shitty team and improving. Bowl eligibility is possible.
Not seeing the schedule, would not rule out a winning record in the MAC. A 500 record, 4-4 in the MAC is very possible.

C'mon Eldon, if you were really bitching about getting 5 wins next season, you really are the Bobby Blackcloud of UMass Football fandom. I would be ecstatic. Jeez man, no pleasing you!!

You are missing my point... If Umass gets 5 wins including 2 FCS and they get by #129, #127 and #124 to get there - there needs to be some level of competitiveness in the other games against better teams. You seem to forget that MAC is #10 out of 10 Conferences.


5 wins would be unbelievable --- but it goes a little deeper than that in Umass' case.

[InnervisionsUMASS]

Well find out next week but think we get 3 out of those 5 teams.
What does it mean. We are not the shitty team and improving. Bowl eligibility is possible.
Not seeing the schedule, would not rule out a winning record in the MAC. A 500 record, 4-4 in the MAC is very possible.

C'mon Eldon, if you were really bitching about getting 5 wins next season, you really are the Bobby Blackcloud of UMass Football fandom. I would be ecstatic. Jeez man, no pleasing you!!

You are missing my point... If Umass gets 5 wins including 2 FCS and they get by #129, #127 and #124 to get there - there needs to be some level of competitiveness in the other games against better teams. You seem to forget that MAC is #10 out of 10 Conferences.


5 wins would be unbelievable --- but it goes a little deeper than that in Umass' case.

This is accurate related to the big picture of football progress and the next step in the conference process.

But here at home... for general and student fan interest... getting to 5 or better would get more butts in the seats and provide a bit of excitement. I'm just not confident in getting to 5 wins in Year 1.

[Rolling Ridge]

If Umass gets 5 wins including 2 FCS and they get by #129, #127 and #124 to get there - there needs to be some level of competitiveness in the other games against better teams.

Unless I'm mistaken, UMass only has one FCS game next season. They also don't control who they play in the MAC. I get what you're saying, but getting to five wins on the backs of weaker opponents is a hell of a lot better than not getting to five against weaker opponents. If we get there, nobody is going to mistake us for Alabama or Georgia, but it would be a major accomplishment for this team, and as IV says, it would be something people can get a little excited about.

That said, I also agree with IV that five wins seems a lot, and that isn't my expectation or my benchmark for success next season. I might feel differently when the MAC releases their schedule, but at the moment, I'm feeling that five wins would be an extraordinarily good season, no matter who they play.

[Quann]

We only play one FCS team in Bryant, not sure what Eldon is talking about. I’ll take 5 wins total next season and be happy as hell.

[eldonabe]

We only play one FCS team in Bryant, not sure what Eldon is talking about. I’ll take 5 wins total next season and be happy as hell.

I had not seen anything i was just assuming two FCS based on previous seasons.

That just reduced the odds of 5 wins even more.

[minutefanjsf]

We only play one FCS team in Bryant, not sure what Eldon is talking about. I’ll take 5 wins total next season and be happy as hell.

I had not seen anything i was just assuming two FCS based on previous seasons.

That just reduced the odds of 5 wins even more.

Temple, Bryant(FCS), Iowa, Missouri then eight MAC games.

[Juice Stand]

We only play one FCS team in Bryant, not sure what Eldon is talking about. I’ll take 5 wins total next season and be happy as hell.

I had not seen anything i was just assuming two FCS based on previous seasons.

That just reduced the odds of 5 wins even more.

Yes, but I think we're having two different discussions here. One is the odds of winning 5 games, which many of us believe is low. The other is the accomplishment of winning 5 games, which most of us believe would be pretty nice. If UMass can somehow get to 5 wins, that would be 4 FBS wins, their most since...well, ever, I believe. And at this point it doesn't really matter if those wins come against the bottom of the FBS barrel. UMass has been the sludgy drippings and residue at the bottom of that barrel, so rising above that would be great. And as others have said, when fans take time out of their day and pay good money to come to games, winning feels a whole heap better than losing.

[eldonabe]

We only play one FCS team in Bryant, not sure what Eldon is talking about. I’ll take 5 wins total next season and be happy as hell.

I had not seen anything i was just assuming two FCS based on previous seasons.

That just reduced the odds of 5 wins even more.

Yes, but I think we're having two different discussions here. One is the odds of winning 5 games, which many of us believe is low. The other is the accomplishment of winning 5 games, which most of us believe would be pretty nice. If UMass can somehow get to 5 wins, that would be 4 FBS wins, their most since...well, ever, I believe. And at this point it doesn't really matter if those wins come against the bottom of the FBS barrel. UMass has been the sludgy drippings and residue at the bottom of that barrel, so rising above that would be great. And as others have said, when fans take time out of their day and pay good money to come to games, winning feels a whole heap better than losing.

Yes - I agree - two different thing. 5 wins would be super for sure.

Umass needs to improve in overall performance and that is measured in their rankings. I know there is some degree of subjectivity in that; however, what I need to see is improvement in those rankings. I lean toward the Massey Rankings personally, but most services are within the same range.

I may have put this out there before but just for S's and G's... Historical Massey Ratings:

2013 121 out of 125
2014 120 out of 128
2015 107 out of 128
2016 118 out of 128
2017 112 out pf 130
2018 115 out of 130
2019 130 out of 130
2020 126 out of 127
2021 130 out of 130
2022 131 out of 131
2023 131 out of 133
2024 133 out of 134

This is were I was going in my comments about beating up the bottom of the MAC. Umass has NEVER been in the top 100 in FBS. Getting 4 wins against 4 other teams ranked higher than 100 is not getting them out of that range.

Yes, 5 wins looks GREAT - especially considering we have never been there, but you can still be pretty shitty and get to 5 wins. In this scenario, you can argue they are better - but how much really? Joe needs to get them to a double digit ranking by year 3 - even if it is #99. If he cannot accomplish that I do not have high hopes for this "experiment" working out.

[InnervisionsUMASS]

Yes, 5 wins looks GREAT - especially considering we have never been there, but you can still be pretty shitty and get to 5 wins. In this scenario, you can argue they are better - but how much really? Joe needs to get them to a double digit ranking by year 3 - even if it is #99. If he cannot accomplish that I do not have high hopes for this "experiment" working out.

So, lets say they win those 5 games, and presume they are the 1 FCS game and 4 shitty MAC teams, but they play well yet lose in 5 of the 7 other games (sans Iowa and Missouri on the road... should be curb stompings in those), that would be a pretty good improvement, right? That would certainly, to me, pass the improvement eye test.


Obviously a total "What if..." situation. And I still think 5 wins is a stretch to expect from this new regime. But if the above scenario were to occur, I think we'd finally see some legitimate regional excitement... or at the very least a reason to be excited moving forward.



EDIT: My post above only is towards part of your previous post... I will add related to the ranking stuff, I do agree that the 5 win scenario proposed would not likely get us into, or even sniffing, the top 100. Looking over the final 2024 Massey rankings, there are 5 Bowl Eligible teams that didn't get into the top 100.

This all still requires one step at a time, so I'm ok with next year being the "What if..." scenario I proposed above and it still taking another year before we make any real movement ranking-wise.

[Uminuteman]

When you suck as bad as we have sucked, 5 wins is 5 wins. The quality of the opponents is irrelevant. This is how a winning culture begins...and yes it needs to begin. The thought that we have to be competitive with Missouri or the 5 wins are less than, is stupid for a team that has 5 wins total over the last 3 years. Steps in the right direction gets you better recruits which leads to more wins and more competitive football against the P4s

[InnervisionsUMASS]

When you suck as bad as we have sucked, 5 wins is 5 wins. The quality of the opponents is irrelevant. This is how a winning culture begins...and yes it needs to begin. The thought that we have to be competitive with Missouri or the 5 wins are less than, is stupid for a team that has 5 wins total over the last 3 years. Steps in the right direction gets you better recruits which leads to more wins and more competitive football against the P4s

Who said we needed to be competitive with Missouri? I certainly did not... I suggested we'd get curb stomped by them and Iowa and that's exactly what we should expect out of those two road games.

[Floyd]

UMass has been the sludgy drippings and residue at the bottom of that barrel

Wow, when you put it that way, sounds pretty bad