Conference realignment 3.0

[rsox1221]

http://www.fbschedules.com/2015/07/sun- ... -carolina/

Sun Belt considering EKU and Coastal Carolina

I think Coastal is their first choice. Especially if being FBS is not required. Though Coastal could make the jump if necessary IMO.

This is only tangentially related to UMass, as the Sun Belt doesn't want us and we don't want the Sun Belt. A lot of things would have to go wrong for the Sun Belt to offer UMass a football-only membership (the only way we'd join) and for UMass to accept it. A LOT of things.

[UMass02]

CCU is an interesting creature. It is a few miles inland from Myrtle Beach and is kind of a big deal in that general area of SC. Their football coach is a former corporate executive who decided to give football a go. He's been approached by some FBS schools and has rebuffed them thus far. In addition, they have a teal-colored field.

[UMass02]

If the Sun Belt comes-a-callin', CCU will say yes. The Sun Belt is interested in Eastern Kentucky, CCU, and one more unknown school. Doesn't necessarily mean all three will be invited.

http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/sports ... 66269.html

[rsox1221]

I think the Sun Belt is looking for full members schools across the board. I remember reading something a few months ago, totally speculative of course, but it said that the Sun Belt might rescind the football-only memberships of Idaho and NMSU given how far of outliers they were to the rest of the conference. It talked about Idaho reclassifying to FCS as well.

But hypothetically, if they did that, then they would be a 9 teams. These three schools they're visiting, they could all get offers in such a case, though they would all have to jump up to FBS, which I doubt has ever been done before. But it's possible.

You are correct though, it's far more likely that CCU is invited and accepts, and that gives them 12 football schools with their outliers.

They don't want any more football-only members, that's for sure. And if I were guessing, I don't think they like the ones they have.

Doesn't have too much of an effect on UMass though since we don't want the Sun Belt and they don't want us. It is interesting to follow though, for sure.

[Max11]

Looks like the Sun Belt has its 12th member for football as Coastal Carolina jumps on board.

http://www.masslive.com/umassfootball/i ... cart_river

Have to say I'm pretty happy it looks like UMass is staying away from that league.

[eldonabe]

Have to say I'm pretty happy it looks like UMass is staying away from that league.

Agreed but we need a home badly, if Umass does not have a commitment to go somewhere (or at the very least have some kind of Bowl option commitment) by then end of Indy year 1, that could spell doom for football.

The best thing that could happen right now is that Cincinnati gets out of the AAC - personally I don't think Uconn has a chance in hell of going anywhere. Whether we like it or not the only real perception difference between Uconn and Umass is that they are a leper with a conference and we are a leper without one. I don't know why but nobody wants to touch Uconn, but I suspect that it is because their football still sucks after too many years to develop it and they leaves them with no glamour value to the P5. It is too soon to say if Umass is in that same boat or not, but Uconn kind of peaked then settled back. Umass needs to peak and hold that ground for a little bit. IMO they really need a bowl eligible record this year...

[rsox1221]

^^ UConn's great hope (and it's not totally unfounded as much as it pains me to say it) is basketball. That program is good enough that it can potentially outweigh the negatives their football program might have. At the very least it could be used as a selling point, then UConn pitches the idea that if they're in a P5 for football everything changes and the program will naturally get better.

I don't necessarily see them going anywhere either, but it's not totally out of the question.

What needs to happen and soon, as you said, is Cincy/Memphis getting poached by the Big XII. Even UCF could get a Big XII invite. So long as the Big XII grabs at least one AAC team, UMass should in theory be in good shape. But they have to compete this season otherwise the AAC would find someone else.

The Big XII isn't going to be sitting on its hands at 10 teams for much longer. They barely escaped oblivion during the last shake-up; they were dangerously close and had Texas taken the Pac-12 offer, the Big XII would be history. They need to get back to having a conference championship game, they saw what not having one did to their members last season with the CFP. I can't imagine they would allow that to happen any longer than they have to. Wouldn't be surprised to see them grabbing teams for next season once this one ends.

Do they go to 12 teams though or go to 14? I think you could make an excellent case for Boise/BYU/Cincy/Memphis to all be added to the Big XII. That would REALLY start the dominoes falling. It's also IMO the best chance for UMass to get the AAC. Hope it happens.

[Max11]

^^ and we still have a long way to go until we're at UConn level for Athletic Dept revenue. It's AAC or Bust for me. Agreed that we really need a good year to give ourselves a chance.

Edit to Add: which schools would be our main competitors for an open spot in the AAC? I'm thinking (in no order) Marshall, Buffalo, Southern Miss, Charlotte, Army, LA Tech?

[rsox1221]

^^ and we still have a long way to go until we're at UConn level for Athletic Dept revenue. It's AAC or Bust for me. Agreed that we really need a good year to give ourselves a chance.

Edit to Add: which schools would be our main competitors for an open spot in the AAC? I'm thinking (in no order) Marshall, Buffalo, Southern Miss, Charlotte, Army, LA Tech?

Marshall, yes. I think they would be the biggest challenger for that spot if there were only one to be had. In fact, if there were only one, I think Marshall would probably get it over UMass.

Buffalo, no. I think they like where they are in the MAC right now, don't think AAC would really look to them anyways.

Southern Miss, no. C-USA forever unless they dropped down or something. LA Tech is also firmly entrenched in C-USA IMO. They do very well for themselves there, though I can see why they would be an option. I think the AAC might reach out to them.

Charlotte just joined FBS & C-USA, they have no history at this level, and it would be a tough look to jump from the conference that brought you in after like two years. They're a C-USA school IMO for a long time; also, I don't think the AAC would ask.

Army I've talked about on MM but I don't see them joining a conference again. They tried, didn't like it, left C-USA. The AAC is a better option than C-USA but I just don't see it happening. They don't have any real issues scheduling. I think they prefer the indy life myself.

UMass is a pretty attractive option for the AAC providing football can show necessary improvement. It gives the league 2 intense Northeast rivalries back at a time when it needs them. The problem is the league is at 12 football schools and has no incentive to add more to go to 14. They would have to get poached.

[Miami (Oh) Yeah !]

Add to the list:
- Old Dominion
- UTSA
- Army
- NIU

AAC is basically CUSA plus Temple and UConn. The Southwest schools will want a Southwest team like UTSA which has really come on strong with attendance and market. Charlotte also has a history will all those schools. I also think Old Dominion would be on the list before UMass and ODU is breaking ground on new basketball and football facilities and are committed to spend what they need. ECU would pull for ODU. And since this is basically CUSA 3.0, keep in mind when Cincy left CUSA (now the AAC) for the Big East, the same group of schools offered Marshall, Miami, and Toledo to backfill for them (Miami and Toledo said no). UMass has UConn and Temple in their corner and thats it. The Southwest (hence Tulsa) and Mid-West contingency have different ideas and other candidates are more qualified regardless. UTSA, Charlotte, and ODU have emerged and showing great strides and attendance since the Tulsa add and all have more in their corner pulling for them then just Temple and UConn for UMass.

[Kosty]

What needs to happen and soon, as you said, is Cincy/Memphis getting poached by the Big XII. Even UCF could get a Big XII invite. So long as the Big XII grabs at least one AAC team, UMass should in theory be in good shape. But they have to compete this season otherwise the AAC would find someone else.

The Big XII isn't going to be sitting on its hands at 10 teams for much longer. They barely escaped oblivion during the last shake-up; they were dangerously close and had Texas taken the Pac-12 offer, the Big XII would be history. They need to get back to having a conference championship game, they saw what not having one did to their members last season with the CFP. I can't imagine they would allow that to happen any longer than they have to. Wouldn't be surprised to see them grabbing teams for next season once this one ends.

Do they go to 12 teams though or go to 14? I think you could make an excellent case for Boise/BYU/Cincy/Memphis to all be added to the Big XII.

Yesd.....THSSS!!!! ALl of this!!!

[Berkman]

The only question I have is if we have a chance to get into a conference for say 2018 or even 2017 what would happen to the games that UMass has agreed on for those seasons?

[MJatUM]

^ There is always a need for out of conference games and when you're dealing that far out you can usually push a game out a couple of years if need be. I'm not sure exactly how many games we have commited to those seasons, but it won't be difficult to move them ESPECIALLY if the reason for moving them is replacing them with conference games.

[Kosty]

^

Might cost a little bit of blinb to move games around

[rsox1221]

The only question I have is if we have a chance to get into a conference for say 2018 or even 2017 what would happen to the games that UMass has agreed on for those seasons?

2016 and 2017 are complete schedules, so those seasons we're indy for sure. 2018 is 8 games currently. You only would need 4 OOC games, so that season might be a little tough to push the other 4. Personally I think we're indy that year too.

2019 has 5 games, and the seasons beyond that have under 4. We could easily move one game from 2019 later to get that to 4. I think that UMass would be looking to move into a new conference (as of right now) in 2019. Obviously things can change, and if an expedited timetable is required, they will do what they need to do to meet the deadline.

But these things, even with the Big XII lurking, usually take a couple/3 years to fully develop. Navy agreed to join the AAC in football this season about three years ago IIRC. Any teams the Big XII poaches would have to negotiate to get out of their current conferences, pay buyouts, etc. Then those conferences would need to look for replacements. It's like giving two weeks notice but it lasts two years.